论欧洲货币一体化的不可逆转性——基于退出成本的分析

On the Irreversibility of European Monetary Unification——An Analysis Based on Cost of Reneging

摘要:

通过对欧洲货币一体化的历史进程进行分析，发现多数欧元成员国偏向选择固定汇率制度。本文根据合作程度不同对各国汇率制度进行了重新分类，并通过模型的构建，对三种不同合作程度的固定汇率制度的退出成本进行了比较。结果表明：退出成本最高的欧洲单一货币形式的固定汇率制度较为稳健且不易受到“投机”的攻击，因此《欧盟宪法条约》受挫之后部分成员国发出退出欧元区的威胁是不可置信的；欧洲货币一体化进程不可避免，也不可逆转。

Abstract:

After analyzing historical progress of European monetary unification, we find out that most member states in Euro area prefer to choose fixed exchange rate regimes. We classify fixed exchange rate regimes into three types in terms of cooperation quality, and take a model to make .some comparisons among these three regimes. Findings shows that fixed exchange rate regime in terms of common money in Europe with the highest cost of reneging is more robust and more insensitive to speculative attacks. Therefore, the threats to exit from Euro area are ineonvincible after the frustration of Constitutional Pact of European Unions and the progress of European monetary unification is unavoidable and also irreversible.