我国区域经济增长收敛的短期性和长期性分析

The Analysis on the Short-term and Long-term Regional Economic Growth Convergence of China

摘要:

从一个新的视角来解释经济增长收敛，对区域经济增长收敛从短期性和长期性两个方面来进行研究，认为区域经济增长的差异呈先扩大后减小的过程即倒U形。对改革开放以来我国区域经济增长过程进行实证分析，结果表明：在短期内我国区域经济增长趋于发散，但只要采取合适的政策措施，在长期内我国区域经济增长将趋于收敛；并给出了我国区域经济增长收敛曲线的模型形式及预测结果。

Abstract:

This paper explains regional economic growth convergence based on the Short term and Long term from the new angle of view, and thinks that the divergence of regional economic growth takes on an inverted-U process. The analysis on regional economic growth of China after opening-up shows that regional economic growth of China is divergence in short term, and goes convergence in long run as long as taking effective measures. At last, this paper gives a model of regional economic growth convergence of China and makes a prediction.