高铁网络、城市碳排放强度及空间溢出效应 ——来自长三角地区的证据

Impact of high speed rail network on urban carbon emission intensity and spatial spillover effect

摘要:

高铁的铺设为我国发展低碳经济和建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会做着重要贡献。为明确高铁网络对城市碳排放强度的影响，文章基于2006-2018年的面板数据，以长三角地区为例，将高铁开通视作一项准自然实验，实证检验了高铁开通及高铁网络对碳排放强度的影响及空间溢出效应。结果发现：高铁开通对城市碳排放强度产生了显著的减排效应，且随着高铁网络的完善，度数中心度和接近中心度越高的城市碳减排效应越明显。机制分析表明，高铁开通通过产业结构效应和科技创新效应对碳排放强度产生了影响。空间溢出效应检验结果表明，高铁开通对碳排放强度产生了显著的本地减排效应，而显著提高了未开通高铁的城市的碳排放强度，不利于周边城市的碳减排。进一步的分析表明，在开通高铁的城市中，度数中心度和接近中心度更高的城市减排效果更加显著，同时对周边城市的碳排放强度也产生了更加显著的提高的效果，这表明碳排放在高铁网络中发生了转移，在中心城市产生了极化效应。

Abstract:

The laying of high-speed railway makes an important contribution to the development of low-carbon economy and the construction of resource-saving and environment-friendly society. In order to clarify the impact of high-speed rail network on urban carbon emission intensity, based on the panel data from 2006 to 2018, taking the Yangtze River Delta as an example, this paper takes the opening of high-speed rail as a quasi natural experiment, and empirically tests the impact of high-speed rail opening and high-speed rail network on carbon emission intensity and spatial spillover effect. The specific conclusions are as follows: the opening of high-speed rail has a significant emission reduction effect on urban carbon emission intensity, and with the improvement of high-speed rail network, the higher the degree centrality and proximity centrality, the more obvious the urban carbon emission reduction effect. Mechanism analysis shows that the opening of high-speed rail has an impact on carbon emission intensity through industrial structure effect and scientific and technological innovation effect. The spatial spillover effect test results show that the opening of high-speed rail has a significant local emission reduction effect on carbon emission intensity, and significantly improves the carbon emission intensity of cities without high-speed rail, which is not conducive to the carbon emission reduction of surrounding cities. Further analysis shows that, in the cities with high-speed rail, the cities with higher degree centrality and nearness centrality have more significant emission reduction effect, and at the same time, the carbon emission intensity of the surrounding cities has also had a more significant improvement effect, which indicates that carbon emission has shifted in the high-speed rail network, resulting in polarization effect.