AfCFTA背景下中国对非洲直接投资包容性发展研究

Research on Inclusive Development of China

摘要:

本文的研究目标是验证AfCFTA背景下中国对非洲直接投资对非洲大陆各国包容性增长的影响机制。分别运用VHSD-EM模型和面板回归模型计算并分析了非洲29个国家2003～2014年包容性增长指数变化情况及中国对非洲直接投资对非洲各国包容性增长的作用机制。研究表明过去20年来,非洲包容性增长虽有所增长但进展缓慢,中国对非洲直接投资促进了非洲经济及包容性增长的发展,但非洲的历史及现有政治经济制度减缓了其发展的步伐。研究结论：AfCFTA的目标是促进非洲各缔约国可持续及包容性发展,在此背景下,中国应进一步扩大对非洲的直接投资,进一步提高投资的质量和效率,在互利共赢的前提下,为非洲的可持续及包容性增长贡献中国的力量。

Abstract:

Under the background of AfCFTA,the impact of China"s direct investment in Africa on the inclusive growth of countries on the African continent has been verified. AVHSD-EM model and panel regression model are used to calculate and analyze the changes of inclusive growth index of 29 African countries from 2003 to 2014 and the mechanism of China"s direct investment in Africa on inclusive growth of African countries.The results show thatAfrica"s inclusive growth has increasedin the past 20 years, but the progress is slow. China"s direct investment in Africa has promoted the development of Africa’s economy and inclusive growth, but Africa"s history, political system and economic system have slowed down its development.Afcfta"s goal of promoting sustainable and inclusive development in African States parties is recognized. In this context, China should further expand its direct investment in Africa, further improve the quality and efficiency of investment, and contribute to the sustainable and inclusive growth of Africa on the premise of mutual benefit and win-win results.