人工智能的三种效应：理论分析

Three Effects of Artificial Intelligence: Theoretical Analysis

摘要:

人工智能不同于以往的技术变革，能同时增强资本和劳动者生产效率，并对传统行业存在较强的溢出效应。本文以人工智能的三种效应为基础，建立两部门理论模型，发现如果人工智能是资本偏向型技术，将有利于人工智能部门转型升级；如果人工智能是劳动偏向型技术，其溢出效应有助于关联企业转型升级。具体结论如下：（1）如果资本和劳动是相互替代的，当人工智能技术对资本的增强效应大于劳动力，则资本的产出弹性将上升，劳动的产出弹性将下降，反之，资本与劳动互补时结论相反；（2）当两部门产品同质时，如果人工智能部门的资本产出弹性大于传统物质生产部门，则随着资本存量和劳动力供给的增加，资本和劳动力将由传统物质生产部门流向人工智能部门；（3）如果两部门产品相互替代，如果两部门中人工智能技术对资本的增强效应大于劳动力，则随着人工智能技术的提高，分配给人工智能部门的资本比例上升，劳动比例下降，；反之，如果两部门产品互补，则结论相反；（4）如果资本与劳动力的替代弹性为1，当两部门产品相互替代时，如果人工智能技术对人工智能部门资本和劳动力的增强效应之和，大于对传统物质生产部门资本和劳动力的溢出效应之和，则资本收入份额上升，劳动收入份额下降，反之，如果两部门产品互补时，则结论相反。

Abstract:

Unlike previous technological changes, artificial intelligence can simultaneously enhance the productivity of capital and labor, and has a strong spillover effect on traditional industries. Based on the three effects of artificial intelligence, a two-sector theoretical model is established, and it is found that if artificial intelligence is a capital-oriented technology, it will be conducive to the transformation and upgrading of the artificial intelligence sector; if artificial intelligence is a labor-oriented technology, its spillover effect will help. Transformation and upgrading of affiliated enterprises. The specific conclusions are as follows: ①If capital and labor replace each other, when the enhancement effect of artificial intelligence technology on capital is greater than that of labor, the output elasticity of capital will increase and the output elasticity of labor will decrease. On the contrary, when capital and labor complement each other, the conclusion is the opposite. ; ② When the products of the two sectors are homogeneous, if the capital output elasticity of the artificial intelligence department is greater than that of the traditional material production department, then with the increase of capital stock and labor supply, capital and labor will flow from the traditional material production department to the artificial intelligence department; ③ If the products of the two sectors substitute for each other, if the enhancement effect of artificial intelligence technology on capital in the two sectors is greater than that of labor, then with the improvement of artificial intelligence technology, the proportion of capital allocated to the artificial intelligence department will increase and the proportion of labor will decrease. If the products are complementary, the conclusion is opposite; ④ If the elasticity of substitution of capital and labor is 1, when the products of the two sectors are substituted for each other, if the sum of the enhancement effect of artificial intelligence technology on the capital and labor of the artificial intelligence sector is greater than that on the capital of the traditional material production sector The sum of the spillover effects of labor and capital, the share of capital income will increase and the share of labor income will decrease. On the contrary, if the products of the two sectors are complementary, the conclusion will be the opposite.