2035年中国的城镇化率与城市群主体空间形态

Prediction of Urbanization Rate and Main Spatial Form of Urban Agglomerations in China in 2035

摘要:

城镇化是2035年基本实现社会主义现代化的重要引擎，城市群是城镇化的主要空间形态。本文按照“是多少”“主体在哪里”的逻辑顺序，依次研究2035年中国的城镇化率和城市群主体空间形态。在简要回顾城镇化历程的基础上，通过多模型筛选，预测2035年中国的城镇化率将达到73.41%~74.53%，并通过与相关研究比照、与八大发达经济体进行对标研究，对预测结果进行验证。城市群主体空间形态由具有较大首位城市、较强吸引力、紧密经济社会联系、承载未来主导产业和有效促进国家战略格局形成的核心城市群构成，是国家未来国土空间结构的大骨架。为此，从首位城市人口规模、城市人口流动方向、城市群内部经济社会联系、未来主导产业空间分布和国家战略政策影响等五个方面构建分析框架，并依托路径依赖理论预测2035年中国城市群主体空间形态将由京津冀、长三角、粤港澳大湾区、成渝、长江中游五大城市群构成。

Abstract:

Urbanization is an important engine for basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035, and urban agglomerations are the main spatial form of urbanization. According to the logical order of ‘how much’ and ‘where is the main body’, the urbanization rate and the main spatial form of urban agglomerations in China in 2035 were studied. Based on a brief review of the urbanization process, through multi model screening, it was predicted that China''s urbanization rate would reach 73.41% - 74.53% in 2035. The prediction result was verified through comparing with relevant studies and benchmarking research with the eight developed economies. The main spatial form of urban agglomeration is composed of core urban agglomeration with large first city, strong attractiveness, close economic and social ties, carrying future leading industries and effectively promoting the formation of national strategic pattern, which is the main skeleton of the country''s future territorial spatial structure. To this end, an analysis framework was constructed from five aspects: the population size of the first city, the direction of urban population flow, the economic and social connections within the urban agglomeration, the spatial distribution of future leading industries, and the impact of national strategic policies, and based on the path dependence theory, it was predicted that the main spatial form of China''s urban agglomeration in 2035 would be composed of five large urban agglomerations, including Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Chengdu-Chongqing, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.