北京市氢燃料电池汽车发展潜力预测分析

Analysis on Development Potential of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle in Beijing

摘要:

氢能源具有来源丰富、高效转化等显著优势，在工业、交通等领域中有较好的应用前景。本文以北京市氢燃料电池商用车未来市场潜力为预测目标，设置乐观情景、基准情景与保守情景三种情景，构建基于麻雀算法优化支持向量机回归（SSA-SVR）的北京市氢燃料电池汽车发展潜力的智能预测模型，对北京市2022—2030年氢燃料电池汽车未来市场需求进行多情景的预测并提出相关建议。结果表明：①SSA-SVR智能预测模型能够克服单一模型参数选择较为敏感的问题，通过参数优化，有效预测北京市氢燃料电池商用车发展潜力。②在乐观情景下，技术进步因素对北京市氢燃料电池商用车发展潜力影响程度最大，在保守情景下，基础条件可作为推动氢燃料电池商用车快速发展的首要因素。

Abstract:

Hydrogen energy has significant advantages such as abundant sources and efficient conversion, and has good application prospects in the fields of industry and transportation. The future market potential of hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles in Beijing is taken as the prediction target, and three scenarios of optimistic scenario, optimistic scenario, baseline scenario and conservative scenario are set up. An intelligent prediction model of the development potential of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in Beijing based on sparrow search algorithm optimized support vector regression (SSA-SVR) is constructed to predict the future market demand of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in Beijing from 2022 to 2030 and put forward relevant suggestions. The results show that:① SSA-SVR intelligent prediction model can overcome the sensitive problem of single model parameter selection, and effectively predict the development potential of hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles in Beijing through parameter optimization. ② In the optimistic scenario, technological progress has the greatest impact on the development potential of hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles in Beijing. In the conservative scenario, basic conditions can be used as the primary factor to promote the rapid development of hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles.