新形势下中国集成电路产业链韧性与安全： 演进态势、主要风险与对策建议

The Resilience and Security of China''s IC Industry Chain under the New Situation: Evolution Trend, Main Risks and Countermeasures

摘要:

提升我国集成电路产业链韧性和安全，是保障数字智能时代我国经济安全和国家安全的基础。本文在分析全球集成电路产业链发展新态势的基础上，提出我国集成电路产业链面临的主要风险，进而提出提升我国集成电路产业链韧性和安全的相关建议。研究发现，美国以安全之名对全球集成电路产业实施“长臂管辖”并强化本国制造能力，全球集成电路产业进入全所未有的动荡期，加之美国对华“脱钩”和推动盟友孤立中国，我国集成电路产业面临前所未有的断链和断供风险，步入产业新周期下行阶段进一步加剧了集成电路产业的竞争风险。但是，着眼于科技自立自强和前沿技术突破，我国在集成电路产业链上的技术和产品突破加速，有效地缓解了外部力量对我国集成电路产业的影响，产业链韧性和安全得到有效缓解。未来，在美国进一步强化“脱钩”威胁、全行业处于复苏阶段、国内技术实力限制的现实背景下，提升我国集成电路产业链韧性和安全不仅需要发挥国家的主动行为能力强化政策供给，以长期的战略部署、“划时代产品”培育以及产业生态的建设，驱动集成电路产业的高水平安全和高质量发展，构建数字智能时代的国家竞争优势。

Abstract:

Improving the resilience and security of China''s integrated circuit (IC) industry chain is the basis for ensuring China''s economic security and national security in the era of digital intelligence. This paper analyzes the latest development trends of the global IC industry chain, examines the main risks, and ultimately proposes suggestions for enhancing the resilience and security of China''s IC industry chain. The study finds that the United States exercises ''long-arm jurisdiction'' over the global IC industry and strengthens its own manufacturing capabilities under the name of security, leading the IC industry into an unprecedented period of turmoil. Coupled with the U.S. ''decoupling'' and isolate China from its allies, China''s IC industry faces unprecedented risks, and the new industrial cycle''s downturn phase further intensifies the competitive risks. However, China''s acceleration in technological and product breakthroughs in the IC industry has effectively mitigated the impact of external forces, and the resilience and security of China''s IC industry have been effectively alleviated by enforcing technological independence and breakthroughs in cutting-edge technologies. In the future, enhancing the resilience and security of China''s IC industry chain and building a national competitive advantage not only requires the active capability of the nation to strengthen policy supply, but also long-term strategy, cultivation of ''epoch-making products'', and construction of the industrial ecosystem are necessary to drive the high-level security and high-quality development of the IC industry.