颠覆性技术从边缘力量如何成为未来主流？ ——基于技术－应用－生态的视角

How Disruptive Technology Evolves From Marginal Presence to Dominant Future Force?—— Based on a technology-application-ecology perspective

摘要:

颠覆性技术会对主流技术轨道以及行业市场格局乃至国际竞争规则产生颠覆性效果，如何从边缘力量成为未来主流，对于科技自立自强具有现实意义。基于创新理论构建技术-应用-生态（TAE）框架，对颠覆性技术的演化路径及其作用机制进行分析。研究表明，颠覆性技术由边缘力量到未来主流是一个系统变革，具有由萌生→丛生→递归的技术生成动态演化轨迹、由初始场景→中阶场景→目标场景→未来场景的应用跃迁路径，以及树状→环状→网状的创新生态变革过程，并受到技术的融合发展、技术－应用的深层互动，以及后发优劣势动态转换的竞争机制等综合作用，从边缘力量到未来主流存在技术分叉、应用跃迁、生态协同三大后发优势转换的临界条件。最后从重视技术科学、加强需求侧管理、优化创新生态、把握政策时机等方面得到政策启示。

Abstract:

Disruptive technology possesses the potential to revolutionize mainstream technology trajectories, reshape industry market structures, and redefine the rules of international competition. How it evolves from a marginal force into a mainstream power in the future is of practical significance for technological self-reliance and self-improvement. Based on the innovation theory, the technology-application-ecology (TAE) framework is constructed to analyze the evolutionary paths of disruptive technologies and their mechanisms of action. A process of systemic change is observed through research during the transition of disruptive technologies from marginal forces to future mainstream power. This process is characterized by a dynamic technological evolution trajectory of germination-proliferation-recursion, an application leap path progressing from initial, to intermediate and target, and ultimately to future scenarios, as well as a process of innovation ecosystem transformation that evolves through arboreal, circular, and network-like structures. The systemic revolution of disruptive technologies is intricately shaped by a range of factors: the integrative development of converging technologies, the intensive interplay between technology and its applications, and the dynamic transformation of competitive advantages and disadvantages in latecomer scenarios. It encompasses three critical conditions for the conversion of latecomer advantages: technological bifurcation, application leaps, and ecological collaboration. Finally,policy insights are achieved from various aspects, including emphasizing technology science, strengthening demand-side management, optimizing the innovation ecosystem, and seizing policy opportunities.