“三道红线”政策的房地产企业债务结构调整效应研究——基于双重差分法的经验证据

Research on the Adjustment Effect of the Debt Structure of Real Estate Enterprises under the “Three Red Lines” Policy: Evidence Based on Difference-in-difference Method

摘要:

本文利用双重差分法考察“三道红线”政策的实施如何影响上市房企的债务结构。实证结果表明，“三道红线”政策对企业的流动负债有显著的负向影响，对长期负债有正向作用，优化调整了公司债务结构。进一步研究发现：①对于固定资产占比较低的企业而言，“三道红线”政策的实施对固定资产占比较高的企业债务结构的调整效应更明显；②国有企业和非东部地区的房企债务结构受到政策的冲击更大；③盈利能力较差，杠杆率较高的企业受到政策的冲击更大，其债务结构的调整效果更好；④政策出台使房地产企业加快营运资本流转，并有针对性地使用长债置换短债。本文在“房住不炒”的政策背景下识别出“三道红线”政策与房地产企业负债结构之间的因果关系，厘清了“三道红线”政策的作用机理，对优化房地产金融政策、降低房地产企业金融化水平有较好的借鉴意义。

Abstract:

The difference-in-differences model was used to examine the effects of implementing the "three red lines" policy on the debt structure of listed real estate firms. The empirical results indicate that a significant negative impact on current liabilities and a positive effect on long-term liabilities occur due to the "three red lines" policy, leading to an optimized adjustment of corporate debt structure. Further research finds the following: ① A more pronounced effect on the debt structure adjustment is observed in firms with a higher proportion of fixed assets than firms with a lower proportion. ② State-owned firms and real estate firms in non-eastern regions experience greater effects from the policy regarding their debt structure. ③ Companies with weaker profitability and higher leverage are more significantly impacted by the policy, resulting in a more effective adjustment of their debt structure. ④ The introduction of the policy accelerates the circulation of working capital in real estate enterprises and promotes the targeted use of long-term debt to replace short-term debt. A causal relationship between the "three red lines" policy and real estate enterprises is identified within the context of the "houses for living and not for investment" policy, elucidating the mechanism of the "three red lines" policy and providing important reference significance for market participants and the improvement of corporate financialization phenomena.