数字基础设施驱动技术创新的传导机制与效应:经验证据与数理模拟

Mechanisms and Effects of Digital Infrastructure on Technological Innovation: Empirical Evidence and Mathematical Simulation

摘要:

立足于我国实施创新驱动发展战略。 推动数字基础设施体系建设的现实背景,首先从创新投入-产出视角系统分析数字基础设施驱动技术创新的理论机制;其次结合文本信息挖掘和2011—2021年省级面板数据, 采用面板向量自回归(PVAR) 模型考察数字基础设施与技术创新的经验事实关系;最后构建包含技术创新部门的动态随机一般均衡( DSGE) 模型,通过数值模拟揭示数字基础设施驱动技术创新的传导路径与效应。实证结果显示,数字基础设施投资和当期数字基建水平对技术创新均存在长期的正向影响。 模拟结果进一步表明:数字基础设施投资通过研发劳动、资源配置等正向影响自主创新和短期的模仿创新;当期数字基建水平通过研发资金、创新补贴、数字技术环境质量等正向影响中长期的自主创新和短期的模仿创新;两类冲击的影响效应分别呈现出“ 厚积薄发” 型和“ 立竿见影” 型特征。 本文为政府引导、充分释放其技术创新效应和经济效益提供理论支撑与决策参考。

Abstract:

Based on the context of implementing an innovation-driven development strategy and promoting the construction of a digital infrastructure system in China, the theoretical mechanism of digital infrastructure driving technological innovation is systematically analyzed from the perspective of innovation input-output. Utilizing text information mining and provincial panel data from 2011 to 2021, a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model was applied to examine the empirical relationship between digital infrastructure and technological innovation. Furthermore, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium ( DSGE) model, incorporating a technological innovation sector, was constructed to reveal the transmission pathways and effects of digital infrastructure on technological innovation through numerical simulation. The empirical results indicate that both digital infrastructure investment and the current level of digital infrastructure have a long-term positive impact on technological innovation. Simulation results further demonstrate that digital infrastructure investment positively influences independent innovation and short-term imitative innovation through R&D labor and resource allocation. The current level of digital infrastructure positively affects medium- and long-term independent innovation as well as short-term imitative innovation through R&D funding, innovation subsidies, and the quality of the digital technology environment. The impact effects of the two types of shocks exhibit characteristics of “gradual accumulation with delayed impact” and “immediate effect, ” respectively. The findings provide theoretical support and policy reference for the government to guide and fully unleash the echnological innovation effects and economic benefits of digital infrastructure.