中国产业关联网络的结构特征与演化机制

Structural Characteristics and Evolutionary Mechanism of Industrial Linkage Network in China

摘要:

采用社会网络分析方法,利用2012—2020年中国42个产业部门的投入产出表数据,对产业关联网络的结构特征进行动态描述,并建立基于随机行动者的网络动力学模型对产业关联网络的演化机制进行识别与分析。结果表明:42个产业网络的整体性指标并无显著性差异,网络整体趋于稳定。化学产品及交通运输、仓储和邮政一直处于中心地位,第二产业尤其是制造业在网络中处于核心地位。2012—2015年,中国产业关联网络可以分为 4个板块(双向溢出板块 I、II,经纪人板块,净受益板块);2017—2020年,经纪人板块消失,出现了主受益板块,板块内的产业关联效应更加明显。 产业关联活动主要集中在金属制品,化学产品,通信设备、计算机和其他电子设备,电器机械和器材等制造业,以及批发和零售,交通运输、仓储和邮政,信息传输、软件和信息技术服务等服务业。内生结构因素的相对重要性为53. 11%,其在网络关系演化中发挥重要作用,负的出度效应表明关联关系较多的产业难以发展新关系,传递效应表明产业存在不断细化的趋势,外生属性因素的相对重要性为46. 89%,其中劳动力的影响最为显著,占比达到 20. 52%。本文为打破行业壁垒,畅通产业循环进而加速国内循环提供重要的产业政策参考。

Abstract:

The social network analysis method was adopted to dynamically describe the structural characteristics of industrial linkage networks using input-output table data of 42 industrial sectors in China from 2012 to 2020, and to establish a network dynamics model based on stochastic actors to identify and analyze the evolution mechanism of industrial linkage networks. The results show that there is no significant difference in the holistic indicators of the 42 industrial networks, and the networks as a whole tend to be stable. Chemical products as well as transportation, warehousing and postal services have been at the center, and the secondary industry, especially the manufacturing industry, is at the core of the network. From 2012 to 2015, China’s industrial linkage network could be divided into four segments (bidirectional spillover segments I and II, broker segment, and net beneficiary segment), and in the period of 2017- 2020, the broker segment disappeared, and the net beneficiary segment disappeared. In 2020, the broker segment disappeared and the main beneficiary segment appeared, and the industrial linkage effect within the segment became more obvious. Industry-linked activities are concentrated in the manufacturing industries of metal products, chemical products, communication equipment, computer and other electronic equipment, and electrical machinery and equipment, and the service industries of wholesale and retail, transportation, storage and postal services, and information transmission, software and information technology services. The relative importance of endogenous structural factors is 53. 11%, which plays an important role in the evolution of network relationships, the negative out-degree effect indicates that industries with more interconnected relationships are difficult to develop new relationships, and the transmission effect indicates that there is a trend of continuous refinement of the industry, and the relative importance of exogenous attribute factors is 46. 89%, of which the influence of labor is the most significant, accounting for 20. 52%.