新兴经济体偏向型技术进步影响产业结构变迁研究: 机理分析与中国证据

Impact of Factor-Biased Technological Change on Industrial Structure Transformation in Emerging Economies: Mechanism Analysis and Evidence from China

摘要:

摘 要：供给侧是研究结构变化的重要切入点，其中技术进步偏向性对产业结构变迁的影响机制尤其关键。与已步入平稳期的发达国家不同，新兴经济体仍处于经济高速增长或向高质量发展转型阶段，要素替代弹性高、发展灵活性强。中国作为全球最大的新兴经济体，正处于转型关键期，要素结构与政策导向具有代表性。本文聚焦新兴经济体，基于其高要素替代弹性特征与差异化的要素技术进步率，建立两部门嵌套生产函数模型，考察在资本-劳动要素替代弹性既定条件下，偏向型技术进步通过改变资本与劳动技术效率之比，对产业结构变迁的作用机制。理论推导和数值模拟表明，偏向型技术进步通过“资源配置效应”“资本密集效应”和“产出规模效应”三大路径推动产业结构变迁。当相对资本密集型部门的资本技术效率上升更快时，该部门产业间的资本占比及其内部资本密集程度均会提高，其产业间的产出占比则会相应降低，进而促使相对劳动密集型部门生产规模扩大。若将相对资本密集型部门设定为制造业，相对劳动密集型部门设定为服务业，此变迁过程符合产业结构优化导向。并进一步以中国为案例的计量检验验证了上述机制。研究结果为新兴经济体产业政策制定与可持续发展提供参考，也为技术创新推动中国式现代化产业体系建设提供启示。 关键词：新兴经济体；技术进步偏向；要素技术效率；要素替代弹性；产业结构变迁；资源配置效应；资本密集效应；产出规模效应

Abstract:

Abstract: The supply side provides a crucial perspective for structural change research, and clarifying how factor-biased technological change affects industrial structure transformation is particularly important. Unlike developed economies with stabilized development, emerging economies are currently experiencing rapid economic expansion or transitioning towards high-quality development, characterized by high factor substitution elasticity and strong developmental flexibility. As the world's largest emerging economy, China is in a critical phase of this transition, with its factor structure and policy orientation being highly representative. This study focuses on emerging economies. Based on their high elasticity of factor substitution and heterogeneous rates of factor-augmenting technological progress, it develops a two-sector nested production function model. The influence mechanism of factor-biased technological change on industrial structure transformation is investigated when capital-labor substitution elasticity remains fixed, focusing on relative changes in capital and labor technological efficiency. Through theoretical derivation and numerical simulation, three major pathways are identified: the “resource allocation effect”, the “capital deepening effect”, and the “output scale effect”. When capital technological efficiency grows faster in relatively capital-intensive sectors, capital share across industries is increased, capital intensity within industries is enhanced, and output share across industries is decreased, ultimately expanding production scale in relatively labor-intensive sectors. Moreover, when the relatively capital-intensive sector is defined as manufacturing and the relatively labor-intensive sector as services, such transformation process aligns with the direction of industrial structure optimization. Econometric tests using Chinese data further verify the above mechanisms. Implications are provided for industrial policy formulation and sustainable development in emerging economies, along with insights for technological innovation-driven modernization of industrial systems in Chinese-style modernization.