国际交通运输通道能否促进制造业升级？ ——来自“义新欧”中欧班列开通的证据

Can International Transport Corridors Drive Manufacturing Upgrading? Evidence from the Launch of the

摘要:

制造业升级既符合国内国际“双循环”发展格局的时代涵义，亦是现代化发展进程中的关键驱动力量。本文使用2005—2021年的城市面板数据，将“义新欧”中欧班列开通作为准自然实验，构建双重机器学习模型，研究国际交通运输通道对制造业升级的影响效应及内在机制。研究发现：“义新欧”中欧班列开通可以显著促进制造业升级。技术创新和贸易增长是“义新欧”中欧班列开通影响制造业升级的重要路径。“义新欧”中欧班列开通对制造业升级的影响呈现显著异质性特征。具体表现为：位于“清大线”东北侧的城市、制造业行业集聚程度较高的城市以及地方财政自主性较强的城市，其制造业升级效应更为显著。本文拓宽了中欧班列品牌的经济效应发展维度，为“义新欧”中欧班列的高质量发展提供政策启示。

Abstract:

Manufacturing upgrading not only aligns with the contemporary implications of the domestic-international “dual circulation” development paradigm, but also serves as a critical driving force in the process of modernization. Utilizing city-level panel data from 2005 to 2021, Using the opening of the “Yixin’ou” China-Europe Railway Express as a quasi natural experiment, this paper constructs a double machine learning model to investigate the impact effects and underlying mechanisms of the railway express on manufacturing upgrading. Research has found that the opening of the “Yixin’ou“ China-Europe Railway Express can significantly promote the upgrading of the manufacturing industry. Technological innovation and trade growth are important paths for the upgrading of the manufacturing industry affected by the opening of the “Yixin’ou” China-Europe Railway Express. The opening of the “Yixin’ou” China-Europe Railway Express has shown significant heterogeneity in its impact on the upgrading of the manufacturing industry. Specifically, cities located on the northeast side of the “Qing-da Line”, cities with a high degree of manufacturing industry agglomeration, and cities with strong local fiscal autonomy have a more significant upgrading effect on their manufacturing industry. This paper expands the economic effect dimensions of the China-Europe Railway Express, providing policy implications for the high-quality development of the “Yixin’ou” China-Europe Railway Express.