贸易摩擦下中国外商撤资的动因——来自进口供应链不确定性视角的解释

Drivers of Foreign Divestment in China under Trade Frictions: Interpretation from the Perspective of Import Supply Chain Uncertainty

摘要:

保证外商直接投资稳存量、扩增量是当前经济工作的重点之一,深入探究贸易摩擦对外商撤资的影响及内在原因,对于在新形势下稳外资意义重大。本文以中美“贸易战”中中国对美国实施的反制关税措施为切入点,研究贸易摩擦对中国外商撤资的影响,并进一步考察贸易摩擦下进口供应链不确定性提升如何在产业链关联中影响外商撤资。研究发现:①贸易摩擦加剧了中国外商撤资行为,对外向型企业、高进口集中度企业和非数字化转型企业影响更大;②贸易摩擦导致进口供应链不确定性增加,这是贸易摩擦加剧外商撤资的重要原因;③进口供应链不确定性的上升对外商撤资还具有同行业及上下游行业溢出效应。本文为解释贸易摩擦下中国外商撤资现象提供了新视角,也从供应链方面为实现“稳外资”提供了政策依据。

Abstract:

Ensuring the stabilization and expansion of foreign direct investment is one of the key priorities in current economic efforts. Exploring the impact of trade friction on foreign divestment and understanding the underlying causes is of great significance for stabilizing foreign investment in the new situation. It took China’ s counter-tariff measures against the United States during the Sino-US “ trade war” as a starting point to examine the effects of trade friction on foreign divestment in China. It further examined how the increased uncertainty of the import supply chain under trade friction affected foreign divestment in the industrial chain correlation. The findings are as follows. Trade friction exacerbates foreign investment withdrawal in China, especially for export-oriented enterprises, enterprises with a high concentration of imports and those not undergoing digital transformation. Trade friction increases uncertainty of the import supply chain, which is a key factor contributing to foreign divestment. The rising uncertainty of the import supply chain also has spillover effects on foreign divestment in the same industry as well as upstream and downstream industries. The research conclusions can provide a new perspective to explain the phenomenon of foreign divestment in China under trade friction, and also provide a policy basis for achieving “stable foreign investment” from the supply chain aspect.