创新政策、产业结构升级与城市经济韧性———基于国家创新型城市建设的准自然实验

Innovation Policies, Industrial Structure Upgrading, and Urban Economic Resilience: Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment of the Pilot Project of Innovative Cities in China

摘要:

如何从政策层面有效提升城市经济韧性是一项值得关注的议题,本文基于多时点双重差分模型,将创新型城市建设、产业结构和城市经济韧性纳入统一研究框架,以2010—2022年中国283个地级市为研究样本,探讨了创新型城市建设对城市经济韧性的影响,并检验了产业结构升级的中介效应。结果表明:创新型城市建设对城市经济韧性的提升作用显著,该结论通过了一系列的稳健性检验;机制分析表明,创新型城市建设对产业结构升级有显著的促进作用,进而增强本地经济韧性,影响路径包括推动产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化两个方面,其中主要通过产业结构合理化这一机制实现;异质性分析表明,政策作用对西部城市、非资源型城市和大规模城市的经济韧性提升效果更显著。

Abstract:

How to effectively enhance urban economic resilience at the policy level is a topic worth paying attention to. A staggered difference-in-difference model was employed to integrate innovative city construction, industrial structure, and urban economic resilience into a unified framework. Using data from 283 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2010 to 2022, the impact of innovative city construction on urban economic resilience was explored, and the mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading was examined. The findings indicate that innovative city construction significantly promotes urban economic resilience, and the conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests. Mechanism analysis shows that innovative city construction significantly promotes the upgrading of industrial structure, thereby boosting local economic resilience. The impact path includes two aspects: promoting industrial structure upgrading and rationalization, with the latter being the primary mechanism. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy effect is more significant in western cities, non resource-based cities, and large-scale cities.