直接创新政策、政府效能与新质生产力 ——基于政府研发补贴视角

Direct Innovation Policies, Government Effectiveness and New Quality Productive Forces: From the Perspective of Government R&D Subsidies

摘要:

创新政策,尤其是作为直接创新政策工具的政府研发补贴,对科技创新具有重要导向作用,有利于新质生产力提升;同时,政府效能在创新政策落实中起着关键作用。基于省级面板数据,构建新质生产力综合指数,并在理论分析基础上实证检验政府研发补贴对新质生产力的影响及政府效能的作用机制。研究发现:政府研发补贴显著促进新质生产力,该结论在稳健性检验后依然成立;补贴效应呈现显著的平滑非线性特征,边际促进作用随补贴水平提高而增强。 政府效能对研发补贴的作用存在正向强化效应;面板门槛模型结果表明,政府效能具有门槛特征,在更高政府效能区间内,研发补贴对新质生产力的促进效应更强。异质性分析显示,在本文样本与模型设定下,中西部地区政策效应更为显著,而东部地区未表现出同等强度的显著性。 基于研究结果,本文提出完善创新政策体系设计、着力提升政府效能、优化区域差异化创新政策等建议,为新质生产力发展提供支撑。研究结论为理解创新政策绩效的治理条件性提供经验证据,并为新质生产力培育的制度环境优化提供政策启示。

Abstract:

Innovation policies, especially government R&D subsidies as a direct innovation policy instrument, play an important guiding role in technological innovation and contribute to the development of new quality productive forces. Government effectiveness is recognized as a key contingency factor influencing the implementation efficiency of such policies. A comprehensive index of new quality productive forces was constructed, and provincial panel data were employed to empirically examine the impact of government R&D subsidies on new quality productive forces. Following a rigorous theoretical framework, the moderating mechanism and threshold effect of government effectiveness were further tested. The results show that government R&D subsidies significantly promote the development of new quality productive forces, and this conclusion remains robust across multiple robustness checks. The subsidy effect exhibits a smooth nonlinear characteristic, where the marginal promotion effect strengthens with increasing subsidy intensity. Government effectiveness exerts a positive moderating effect on the relationship between R&D subsidies and new quality productive forces. Results from the panel threshold model indicate that government effectiveness has a threshold characteristic, and in the interval of higher government effectiveness, R&D subsidies have a stronger facilitating effect on new quality productive forces. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the policy effect is statistically significant and more pronounced in central and western China, whereas it is not significant in eastern regions under the current sample and model specification. Based on these findings, policy implications are proposed, including improving the design of the innovation policy system, enhancing government effectiveness, and implementing regionally differentiated strategies. It provides empirical evidence for understanding the governance contingency of innovation policy performance and offers insights for optimizing the institutional environment for the development of new quality productive forces.