关税冲击、制造业智能化与中国产业链韧性

Tariff Shocks, Manufacturing Intelligence and the Resilience of China's Industrial Chain

摘要:

提升全球产业链稳定性与韧性已成为促进经济高质量发展的关键路径。 通过对接关税数据、国际机器人联合会数据、OECD 全球投入产出表数据,考察关税冲击对产业链稳定性和韧性的影响。 研究发现:关税冲击能够提升产业链波动率,降低产业链稳定性;纳入制造业智能化后,制造业智能化能够在关税冲击下降低产业链波动率,提高产业链稳定性。 机制检验表明,关税冲击显著削弱了规模经济效应、技术创新能力和人力资本水平,进而导致产业链波动率上升,促使产业链稳定性降低。 异质性检验发现,关税冲击降低了高、中高、中等技术水平制造业的产业链稳定性;在加征关税影响下,制造业智能化更倾向于提升高、中高、中等技术水平制造业的产业链稳定性,发挥“稳链”效应。 进一步分析发现,加征关税会抑制制造业智能化发展,但并不能抑制高技术制造业的智能化持续创新。 研究结论为深刻理解加征关税等贸易保护措施及“人工智能+”行动提供了重要的理论支撑,也为全面认识全球产业链和构建现代化产业体系提供科学依据,具有重要的政策意义。

Abstract:

Enhancing the stability of the global industrial chain is essential for promoting high-quality economic development. The impact of tariff shocks on the stability and resilience of industrial chains were examined by integrating tariff data (WITS) , the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) , and OECD-ICIO data. The results find that tariff shocks increase industrial chain volatility and reduce stability. Furthermore , incorporating manufacturing intelligence can reduce industrial chain volatility and enhance stability despite the impact of tariff shocks. Mechanism tests indicate that tariff shocks significantly undermine economies of scale , technological innovation and human capital levels , thereby increasing industrial chain volatility and reducing stability. Heterogeneity tests reveal that tariff shocks reduce industrial chain stability in high-, medium-high-, and medium-tech manufacturing industries. Manufacturing intelligence , under the influence of tariffs , is shown to enhance industrial chain stability in these sectors , exerting a stabilizing effect. Further analysis reveals that while tariff shocks slow the development of manufacturing intelligence , they fail to deter sustained intelligent innovation in high-tech manufacturing industries. The research provides important theoretical support for a deeper understanding of trade protection measures such as tariffs and the“AI+” initiative . It also offers a scientific basis for a comprehensive understanding of global industrial chains and building a modern industrial system , which thus holds important policy implications.