关键数字技术竞争态势与跃迁路径研究——以生物特征识别为例

Competitive Position and Transition Pathways of Key Digital Technologies:A Case Study of Biometric Recognition

摘要:

实现关键数字技术自立自强是我国打造全球竞争新优势、抢占国际竞争制高点的战略“先手棋”，也是创新引领发展新质生产力、建设现代化产业体系的“胜负手”。本文以生物特征识别这一典型关键数字技术为例，综合运用技术生命周期、技术轨道和技术跃迁等理论，揭示了关键数字技术的全球竞争格局、技术生命演化周期和跃迁路径。研究发现:从竞争态势来看，关键数字技术全球竞争主体呈现纷繁复杂的动态变迁趋势，且以欧美等国家为主导的技术主路径对中国的后发追赶呈现出一定的“周期性技术锁定效应”。从技术路径演化来看，关键数字技术的发展沿着“S曲线”的轨迹演进，呈现出由欧洲、美国主导的基础研究转向中国引领应用研究创新转变的趋势，且随着全球竞争加剧，关键数字技术由单一模态向多模态技术融合演化。从跃迁路径来看，跨领域之间的多元技术深度融合与新兴场景驱动为我国突破关键数字技术“周期性锁定”和实现技术超越追赶提供了“机会窗口”。最后，从破解关键数字技术“周期性锁定”、实现“换道超车”和加强应用型基础研究为导向的原始创新策源体系方面提出建议，为实现关键数字技术突破与超越追赶提供新的理论框架与实践指南。

Abstract:

Achieving self-reliance and strength in critical digital technologies is the strategic “opening move” for China to build new advantages in global competition and seize the commanding heights of international rivalry. It also constitutes the decisive “winning move” for fostering new engines of economic growth and building a modern industrial system. Taking biometric recognition as a representative case, this paper integrates the theories of the technology life cycle, technological trajectories, and technological transitions to elucidate the global competitive landscape, evolutionary life cycle, and transition pathways of key digital technologies. The findings indicate that, in terms of competitive dynamics, the global landscape of key digital technologies is characterized by highly complex and continuously evolving patterns among competing actors. Moreover, the dominant technological trajectories led by Europe, the United States, and other advanced economies impose a certain “cyclical technological lock-in effect” on China’s latecomer catching-up efforts. From the perspective of technological trajectory evolution, the development of key digital technologies follows an S-curve pattern. It shows a clear shift from basic research dominated by Europe and the United States toward application-oriented innovation increasingly led by China. Moreover, as global technological competition intensifies, these technologies are evolving from single-modal solutions to integrated multimodal systems. From the perspective of transition pathways, the deep cross-domain integration of diverse technologies, together with the driving force of application contexts, has opened a window of opportunity for China to break through the cyclical technological lock-in in key digital technologies and to realize latecomer catch-up. Finally, this study puts forward a set of recommendations on how to break the cyclical lock-in of key digital technologies in the future, achieve leapfrogging through alternative technological pathways (“overtaking by changing lanes”), and strengthen an original innovation system oriented toward application-oriented basic research. Overall, the study provides a new analytical framework and practical guidance for latecomer countries seeking breakthrough innovation and technological catch-up in key digital technologies.