中国对外能源投资对“一带一路”国家绿色发展的影响研究

Impact of China’s Foreign Energy Investment on the Green Development of “ Belt and Road ” Countries

摘要:

在全球能源结构转型与气候治理深化背景下,中国对“一带一路”国家的能源投资规模持续扩大且结构日趋多元化。鉴于能源投资项目对环境影响的长周期性,基于 2008—2024 年 54 个“一带一路”国家数据,运用固定效应模型和分位数回归方法探究中国对外能源投资与各国绿色发展之间的关系。 研究发现:中国对“一带一路”国家的能源投资显著促进其绿色发展水平的提升,并且对绿色全要素生产率水平越低的国家产生的绿色促进效应更强,这一结论经过了一系列稳健性和内生性检验。 同时,中国对外能源投资通过投资结构优化、绿色金融支撑、绿色技术创新和数字基础设施建设四条渠道对“一带一路”国家绿色发展产生促进作用。 进一步分析发现,考虑投资形式、投资区位和东道国特质层面的分样本回归结果存在异质性。 中国对外清洁能源投资和绿地并购类投资的绿色发展效应更强,且显著促进陆上丝绸之路国家、亚洲国家、中低收入水平国家和低制度环境国家的绿色发展。 研究结果为积极回应国际上针对中国提出的“中国污染转移论”“中国环境威胁论”等舆论和质疑,以及持续推进共建绿色“一带一路”提供理论依据与经验支撑。

Abstract:

Against the backdrop of global energy structure transformation and deepening climate governance, the scale of China's energy investment in “ Belt and Road ” countries is continuously expanded and its structure is increasingly diversified. Given that the environmental impact of energy investment projects was characterized by long-term persistence, based on the data of fifty-four countries from 2008 to 2024, a fixed effect model and quantile regression method were built to explore the relationship between China’s foreign energy investment and the green development of host countries. The results show that the countries’ green development level is significantly promoted by China’s energy investment，and the green promotion effect is stronger in countries with lower GTFP levels. A series of robustness and endogeneity tests was conducted. Meanwhile，the promotion of green development in countries by China’s energy investment was achieved through four channels: investment structure optimization，green financial support，green technology innovation，and digital infrastructure construction. Furthermore, heterogeneity was demonstrated in sub-samples when investment form，investment location，and host country characteristics were considered. The green development effect of China's foreign investment in clean energy and greenfield merger and acquisition found to be stronger，and the green development level of land “ Silk Road ” countries，Asian countries, middle- and low-income countries, and countries with a low institutional environment was significantly enhanced. A theoretical basis and empirical support are provided by the results for actively responding to international public opinions and doubts，such as the “ China pollution shift theory ” and the “ China environmental threat theory" , and for continuously promoting the green “ Belt and Road ” .