内外技术循环的协同机制与产业升级——基于非线性门槛与中介路径的实证检验

The Synergy Mechanism of Internal and External Technology Cycles and Industrial Upgrading: An Empirical Test Based on Nonlinear Thresholds and Mediating Paths

摘要:

全球科技竞争日趋激烈,技术要素跨区域流动成为优化产业格局、驱动产业转型升级的核心动力。基于“双循环联动”与“结构性支撑”的理论视角, 旨在厘清双循环新发展格局下技术要素跨域流动的协同增效机制。研究选取2007—2023年中国283个城市的多源专利转让数据,构建产业升级三维测度体系, 实证检验国际技术转入与国内技术转出的交互效应。研究发现:国际技术转入与国内技术转出存在显著的协同效应, 国内技术转出通过提升区域技术吸收与再创新能力,对国际技术吸纳引致的产业升级发挥显著的结构性支撑作用,为理解单纯依赖技术引进可能带来的路径依赖问题提供了经验证据。异质性分析表明 ,“ 胡焕庸线”东南侧地区依托成熟的创新生态,更易释放技术转移的红利;进一步的门槛检验验证了国内技术转出存在双重门槛特征,揭示了技术要素从碎片化输入到系统性整合的动态演化特征。据此,本文提出构建梯度化区域治理体系与推行制度型开放策略, 旨在缓解价值链攀升不足与区域技术发展不平衡问题,为引导创新链与产业链在双循环联动中实现深度耦合提供理论支撑与实践路径。

Abstract:

Amidst the intensifying global technological competition, the cross-regional flow of technological factors has become the core driving force for optimizing industrial structures and driving industrial transformation and upgrading. Grounded in the theoretical framework of “dual-circulation linkage” and “structural support”, the synergistic enhancement mechanism governing cross-regional technological factor flows under the new dual-circulation development paradigm was elucidated. Based on multi-source patent transfer data covering 283 Chinese cities for the period from 2007 to 2023, a three-dimensional measurement system for industrial upgrading was constructed, and the interaction between international technology inflows and domestic technology outflows was empirically examined. Significant synergies are identified between these two flows. Domestic technology outflows are shown to exert a prominent structural supporting effect on industrial upgrading induced by international technology absorption, primarily by bolstering regional technological absorption and re-innovation capabilities. Empirical evidence is thereby provided regarding the path dependence risks inherent in exclusive reliance on technology introduction. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the dividends of technology transfer are more readily harnessed in regions southeast of the “Hu Huanyong Line”, where mature innovation ecosystems prevail. A double-threshold characteristic of domestic technology outflows is confirmed through further threshold tests, and the dynamic evolution process of technological factors from fragmented input to systemic integration is revealed. A gradient regional governance system and institutional opening-up strategies are proposed to mitigate insufficient value chain progression and uneven regional technological development. Theoretical support and practical pathways are thus offered for steering the deep coupling of innovation chains and industrial chains under the dual-circulation linkage framework.