气候政策不确定性与碳-能源-金融市场的风险溢出效应研究

Climate Policy Uncertainty and Risk Spillover Effects in Carbon, Energy, and Financial Markets

摘要:

在“双碳”目标推进和全球气候治理加速背景下，防范气候政策不确定性引发的碳、能源与金融市场跨市场风险传染具有重要意义。本文构建“CPU-碳-能源-金融”四维风险联动分析框架，采用分位数向量自回归模型和频域分解方法，从时域与频率维度分析气候政策不确定性在常态与极端情形下的风险溢出效应。研究结果表明：①气候政策不确定性在风险传导中具有枢纽作用，呈现显著的状态依存特征，常态下为净风险接受方，极端情景下转为净风险溢出方，且在疫情和地缘冲突期间冲击显著增强，这一角色转换与风险偏好下降、流动性约束增强以及政策预期重塑密切相关；②短期溢出始终占主导，体现市场对信息的快速反应特征，但极端状态下中长期溢出明显加强，表明极端事件能够唤醒市场的“长期记忆”，使风险呈现跨期蔓延特征；③能源市场是关键传导节点，下跌时煤炭和天然气强化风险集中，上涨时石油成为溢入源并加强与碳市场、商品期货的关联。研究结论为构建状态依赖型风险防御体系、优化能源转型路径设计和推动能源平稳转型提供参考。

Abstract:

Against the backdrop of advancing the "dual carbon" goals and accelerating global climate governance, preventing cross-market risk contagion among carbon, energy, and financial markets induced by climate policy uncertainty is of great significance. A four-dimensional risk linkage analysis framework of "CPU-carbon-energy-finance" is constructed. The quantile vector autoregressive model and frequency domain decomposition method were employed to examine the risk spillover effects of climate policy uncertainty under normal and extreme conditions from both time and frequency dimensions. The results show that: (i) Climate policy uncertainty plays a pivotal role in risk transmission and exhibits a pronounced state-dependent characteristic. It acts as a net risk receiver under normal conditions but turns into a net risk transmitter under extreme scenarios, with its impact significantly amplified during the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts. This role reversal is closely associated with declining risk appetite, heightened liquidity constraints, and the reshaping of policy expectations. (ii) Short-term spillovers consistently dominate the transmission process, reflecting the rapid market response to information. However, medium- and long-term spillovers are markedly intensified under extreme market states, indicating that extreme events can awaken the market's "long-term memory" and lead to cross?period risk contagion. (iii) The energy market serves as a critical transmission node. During downturns, coal and natural gas reinforce risk concentration, while during upturns, oil becomes a primary spillover source and strengthens its linkages with the carbon market and commodity futures. The findings provide empirical evidence for constructing a state-dependent risk defense system, optimizing the design of energy transition pathways, and facilitating a smooth energy transition.