外部冲击与企业持续性数字技术创新———来自中美贸易摩擦的经验证据

External Sho cks a nd C orpor ate Sustained Digital Innovation: Empirical Evidence from the China-US Trade Friction

摘要:

在中美贸易摩擦不断升级的背景下,多重外部冲击极大地增加了中国经济环境的不确定性,并对中国企业创新模式的转变产生了深远影响。采用2007—2023 年中国A 股上市公司数据,基于双重差分法实证检验了中美贸易摩擦的外部冲击对企业持续性数字技术创新的影响及其作用机制。研究结果发现:中美贸易摩擦对受影响企业的持续性数字技术创新具有显著倒逼作用;机制检验结果表明,供应链数字化效应和税收优惠效应是中美贸易摩擦影响企业持续性数字技术创新的主要路径;异质性检验结果发现,该倒逼效应在研发投入强度高、融资约束高、新型基础设施薄弱地区、外部治理环境较好、处于技术密集型行业、位于非资源型城市及内陆城市的企业表现更为突出;拓展性分析发现,企业持续性数字技术创新能够显著提高生产经营效率和优化人力资本结构。研究基于中美贸易摩擦的经验证据,为中国企业转变数字技术创新模式,应对未来可能进一步升级的贸易摩擦及解决“卡脖子”难题提供了重要的理论支撑与政策启示。

Abstract:

Against the backdrop of escalating China-US trade tensions, multiple external shocks have significantly increased uncertainty in China’s economic environment and had a profound impact on the transformation of innovation models among Chinese enterprises. Using data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2023 and employing the difference-in-differences method, the impact of China-US trade friction on firms?? sustained digital technology innovation and its underlying mechanisms were ystematically examined. The findings reveal that China-US trade friction exerts a significant “ backward-pushing” effect on the sustained digital technology innovation of affected firms.Mechanism tests indicate that the effects of supply chain digitization and tax incentives are the primary channels through which China-US trade friction influences firms’ sustained digital technology innovation. Heterogeneity tests reveal that this catalytic effect is more pronounced among firms with high R&D intensity, high financing constraints, located in regions with weak new infrastructure, operating in a favorable external governance environment, engaged in technology-intensive industries, and situated in non-resource-based or inland cities. Exploratory analysis further indicates that sustained digital technology innovation significantly enhances operational efficiency and optimizes human capital structure. Based on empirical evidence from the China-US trade friction, important theoretical support and policy implications are provided for Chinese enterprises to address potential future escalations of trade friction and resolve “chokepoint” challenges by transforming their digital technology innovation models.