中国新质生产力系统的城市关联网络格局与韧性评估研究

Landscape and resilience measurement research on city association network for new quality productive forces system in China

摘要:

提升新质生产力发展的城市关联网络韧性是应对日益增长的风险扰动，维持区域协同稳定与可持续发展的重要方式。选取地级及以上城市为研究对象，在构建新质生产力的城市关联网络基础上，评估网络韧性特征与趋势，模拟随机与蓄意攻击情形下的网络失效状态。研究发现：1）城市关联网络已从超低密度转变为低密度网络，网络密度与平均度的上升态势明显，网络效率始终处于较高水平。2）板块结构呈“内部强化-跨区联动-西部融入”特征，板块2枢纽作用增强，板块4凝聚力提升但仍孤立。3）网络韧性呈现差异化演化特征，网络脆弱性、恢复性与抗毁性均明显增强，但网络演进性呈弱化趋势，凸显韧性提升过程中机遇与挑战并存的格局。4）仿真模拟结果表明，随攻击比例增加，网络韧性呈阶段性衰减，随机攻击情形下的网络失效滞后于蓄意攻击情形。其中，随机攻击下网络效率失效阈值较蓄意攻击滞后14个节点，平均路径长度和最大连通子图的失效阈值节点数较蓄意攻击滞后143个节点。优化网络层级结构，增强相邻节点间的互补性资源配置以提升网络抗毁能力，为增强整体空间关联网络的韧性水平提供科学参考。

Abstract:

Enhancing the resilience of urban interconnection networks for new quality productivity forces (NQPF) development serves as a crucial approach to address escalating risk disturbances and sustain regional coordinated stability and sustainable development. Focusing on cities at or above the prefecture level, this study first constructs an urban interconnection network for NQPF, then evaluates the network’s resilience characteristics and evolutionary trends, and finally simulates network failure states under random and deliberate attack scenarios. The results show that: ①The urban connectivity network has transitioned from ultra-low density to low density, with a clear upward trend in network density and average degree, while network efficiency remains consistently high. ②The block structure exhibits the characteristics of “internal strengthening, inter-regional linkage, and western integration”. Block 2’s hub function has intensified, and Block 4’s cohesion has improved but remains isolated. ③Network resilience demonstrates differentiated evolutionary characteristics. Network vulnerability, recoverability, and invulnerability have significantly improved, but network evolvability shows a weakening trend, highlighting a pattern of coexisting opportunities and challenges in the resilience enhancement process. ④Simulation results indicate that as the attack ratio increases, network resilience declines in stages. Network failure under random attacks lags behind that under targeted attacks, with failure occurring significantly earlier under targeted attacks. Specifically, under random attacks, the failure threshold for network efficiency lags by 14 nodes compared to targeted attacks, while the failure onset nodes for average path length and the largest connected subgraph lag by 143 nodes. Improving the hierarchical structure of the network and enhancing complementary resource allocation among adjacent nodes to boost network invulnerability provides scientific reference for strengthening the resilience of the overall spatial connectivity network.