外部技术打压是否促进关键技术突破？-数字创新网络的调节作用

Does External Technology Sanctioning Foster Breakthroughs in Critical Technologies?—The Moderating Role of Digital Innovation Networks

摘要:

在高水平科技自立自强战略持续推进的背景下，外部技术打压会抑制企业创新还是激发关键核心技术突破，已成为技术经济研究中的重要问题。本文基于2013-2021年中国A股制造业上市企业数据，采用随机森林反事实估计与BART个体处置效应识别方法，检验外部技术打压与企业关键核心技术突破之间的关系，并进一步分析数字创新网络的调节作用。研究发现：第一，处于外部技术打压暴露状态的企业，其关键核心技术突破水平高于未处于暴露状态的企业。第二，这一正向关系并非在企业间均匀发生，不同响应组企业在技术基础、制度资源可达性和路径重构潜力等前置能力上存在系统差异。第三，数字创新网络通过强化知识吸收和提升制度资源转化效率强化外部技术打压与关键核心技术突破之间的正向关系。第四，数字创新网络的调节效应在组织结构响应能力较弱的企业以及地方政府数字技术关注度相对不足的地区更为突出。本文为完善关键核心技术攻关组织方式、培育数字创新网络和提升企业自主创新能力提供了经验证据。

Abstract:

Against the backdrop of intensifying global technological rivalry and rising chokepoint risks in critical core technologies, this paper examines whether external technological sanctions suppress firm innovation or induce indigenous technological upgrading. Using Chinese A-share listed manufacturing firms from 2013 to 2021, we construct measures of external technological sanction exposure, critical core technology breakthroughs and digital innovation network embeddedness. The random-forest counterfactual estimates show that external technological sanction exposure has a significantly positive average treatment effect, indicating that firms exposed to external technological sanctions exhibit higher levels of critical core technology breakthroughs after controlling for firm characteristics, industry differences and year shocks. The BART individual treatment effects further reveal substantial heterogeneity across firms. Digital innovation networks strengthen the positive association by improving knowledge absorption, facilitating the conversion of institutional resources and expanding technological path exploration. The moderating effect is more pronounced among firms with weaker organizational response capacity and in regions where governmental attention to digital technologies is relatively limited. These findings provide micro-level evidence for building digital innovation networks and improving policy responses to external technological constraints.