中国数字经济投入产出网络韧性测度与形成机制研究

Resilience Measurement and Formation Mechanism of China’s Digital Economy Input-output Network

摘要:

在数字经济与实体经济深度融合的背景下,本研究基于2005～2023年中国投入产出表,构建包含数字经济部门的产业网络,引入生态网络分析的效率-冗余框架测度产业网络韧性,并将韧性指标嵌入时间指数随机图模型,系统考察中国数字经济投入产出网络韧性演化与形成机制。研究发现:第一,中国产业网络始终处于过度冗余状态,韧性呈波动上升态势,节点间流量集中程度是韧性波动的核心驱动力,韧性主导因素在2020年前后从效率变化转为冗余变化。第二,网络演化具有显著的路径依赖特征与结构刚性,传递闭合性促进间接关联转化,冗余流入贡献显著为正,表明上游供应多元化行业更易建立关联,而效率相关变量均不显著。第三,数字经济部门呈现双重角色。在韧性维度上,影响力从数字产业化主导(2005—2012年)向产业数字化主导(2012—2020年)演进；在演化机制上,两者对关联形成具有非对称性,主要表现为对存量关联的优化与替代。本研究为理解数字经济时代产业网络韧性特征与演化逻辑提供了新的分析框架与经验证据,也为新发展格局下统筹效率与安全、推动数字经济与实体经济深度融合提供了理论依据与决策参考。

Abstract:

Against the backdrop of the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy, an industrial network incorporating the digital economy sector was constructed based on China’s input-output tables from 2005 to 2023. The efficiency-redundancy framework from ecological network analysis was introduced to measure industrial network resilience, and the resilience indicators were embedded into a temporal exponential random graph model to systematically investigate the evolutionary patterns and formation mechanisms of China’s digital economy input-output network resilience. The findings reveal the following. Firstly, China’s industrial network has remained in a state of excessive redundancy, with resilience exhibiting a fluctuating upward trend. The concentration of inter-node flows serves as the core driver of resilience fluctuations, and the dominant factor influencing resilience shifted from efficiency change to redundancy change around 2020. Secondly, network evolution exhibits significant path dependence and structural rigidity. Transitive closure facilitates the transformation of indirect linkages, and the contribution of redundant inflows is significantly positive, indicating that industries with diversified upstream supply are more likely to establish connections, whereas efficiency-related variables are not significant. Thirdly, the digital economy sector assumes a dual role. In terms of resilience, its influence has evolved from being dominated by digital industrialization ( 2005—2012) to being led by industrial digitization ( 2012—2020). In terms of evolutionary mechanisms, the two sub-sectors exhibit asymmetric effects on link formation, primarily manifested in the optimization and substitution of existing linkages. Thus, a novel analytical framework and empirical evidence are provided for understanding the resilience characteristics and evolutionary logic of industrial networks in the digital economy era. Moreover, theoretical insights and decision-making references are offered for balancing efficiency and security and promoting the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy within the new development paradigm.