灾害经历如何影响农户技术采纳？——以抗旱适应性技术为例

How do disaster experiences affect farmers' adoption of technologies? ——A Case Study of Drought-Adaptive Technologies

摘要:

全球气候变化提高了极端天气事件的发生频率和严重程度，干旱风险已从偶发性冲击演变为农业生产中的常态性胁迫，而农户的适应性技术采纳是构建农业防灾体系的微观基础。本文基于中国食用豆主产区三地561户农户的实地调研数据，以抗旱措施为研究对象，从技术采纳和气象服务付费两个层面，系统考察农户采纳气候适应性技术的驱动机制。研究结果表明：第一，气候灾害冲击是驱动农户采纳抗旱技术的核心因素，但影响强度存在异质性，对采用抗旱种子、变换种植结构、变换播种或收获时间以及采用气象服务均具有显著促进作用，但对增加灌溉无显著影响，反映出适应性技术采纳存在资源约束门槛；第二，在需要持续付费的技术采纳中，支付意愿是决定农户技术支付能力的核心前提，支付意愿的形成主要由受灾严重程度驱动。本文揭示了农户技术采纳行为中“灾害驱动—技术分化—意愿主导—能力制约”的行为逻辑，为理解农户在气候变化下的决策机制提供了新的经验证据。研究结论为完善农业防灾减灾政策、优化气象服务供给模式具有参考价值，也为针对不同类型农户制定差异化技术推广策略提供了实证依据。

Abstract:

Global climate change has increased the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Drought risk has evolved from an occasional shock into a persistent stressor in agriculture production. Farmers' adoption of adaptive technologies is regarded as the micro-level foundation for building an agricultural disaster prevention system. Field survey data were collected from 561 farmer households in three major edible bean production areas in China. The driving mechanism of farmers' adoption of climate-adaptive technologies was systematically examined from two dimensions: technology adoption and payment for meteorological services, with drought-resistant measures as the research object. The results indicate that climate disaster shocks are a core factor driving farmers' adoption of drought-resistant technologies. However, the strength of the impact is heterogeneous. Significant positive effects are found on the adoption of drought-resistant seeds, changes in planting structure, changes in sowing or harvesting time, and the adoption of meteorological services. No significant effect is found on increased irrigation. This reflects a resource constraint threshold in the adoption of adaptive technologies. Second, in the adoption of technologies requiring continuous payment, the core prerequisite determining farmers' payment capacity is identified as willingness to pay. The formation of willingness to pay is mainly driven by the severity of disaster losses. The behavioral logic of "disaster-driven—technology differentiation—willingness-led—capacity-constrained" in farmers' technology adoption behavior is revealed. New empirical evidence is provided for understanding farmers' decision-making mechanisms under climate change. Reference value for improving agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation policies and optimizing the supply model of meteorological services is provided by the conclusions. Empirical evidence is also provided for formulating differentiated technology extension strategies for different types of farmers.